[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=1 prior_prob=0.1800 alpha=1.20 beta=4.50 posterior=0.2100 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=75.50 weather_temp_c=23.9 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.0800

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=2 prior_prob=0.1960 alpha=1.30 beta=4.45 posterior=0.2220 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=79.03 weather_temp_c=23.2 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.0850

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=3 prior_prob=0.2120 alpha=1.40 beta=4.40 posterior=0.2340 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=79.32 weather_temp_c=21.8 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.0900

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=4 prior_prob=0.2280 alpha=1.50 beta=4.35 posterior=0.2460 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=76.09 weather_temp_c=20.9 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.0950

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=5 prior_prob=0.2440 alpha=1.60 beta=4.30 posterior=0.2580 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=72.32 weather_temp_c=21.4 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1000

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=6 prior_prob=0.2600 alpha=1.70 beta=4.25 posterior=0.2700 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=71.47 weather_temp_c=22.8 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1050

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=7 prior_prob=0.2760 alpha=1.80 beta=4.20 posterior=0.2820 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=74.33 weather_temp_c=23.8 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1100

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=8 prior_prob=0.2920 alpha=1.90 beta=4.15 posterior=0.2940 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=78.26 weather_temp_c=23.5 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1150

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=9 prior_prob=0.3080 alpha=2.00 beta=4.10 posterior=0.3060 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=79.66 weather_temp_c=22.2 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1200

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=10 prior_prob=0.3240 alpha=2.10 beta=4.05 posterior=0.3180 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=77.23 weather_temp_c=21.0 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1250

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=11 prior_prob=0.3400 alpha=2.20 beta=4.00 posterior=0.3300 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=73.22 weather_temp_c=21.1 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1300

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=12 prior_prob=0.3560 alpha=2.30 beta=3.95 posterior=0.3420 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=71.30 weather_temp_c=22.4 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1350

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=13 prior_prob=0.3720 alpha=2.40 beta=3.90 posterior=0.3540 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=73.25 weather_temp_c=23.7 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1400

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=14 prior_prob=0.3880 alpha=2.50 beta=3.85 posterior=0.3660 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=77.26 weather_temp_c=23.8 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1450

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=15 prior_prob=0.4040 alpha=2.60 beta=3.80 posterior=0.3780 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=79.66 weather_temp_c=22.6 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1500

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=16 prior_prob=0.4200 alpha=2.70 beta=3.75 posterior=0.3900 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=78.23 weather_temp_c=21.3 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1550

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=17 prior_prob=0.4360 alpha=2.80 beta=3.70 posterior=0.4020 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=74.29 weather_temp_c=21.0 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1600

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=18 prior_prob=0.4520 alpha=2.90 beta=3.65 posterior=0.4140 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=71.46 weather_temp_c=22.0 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1650

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=19 prior_prob=0.4680 alpha=3.00 beta=3.60 posterior=0.4260 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=72.35 weather_temp_c=23.4 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1700

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=20 prior_prob=0.4840 alpha=3.10 beta=3.55 posterior=0.4380 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=76.13 weather_temp_c=23.9 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1750

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=21 prior_prob=0.5000 alpha=3.20 beta=3.50 posterior=0.4500 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=79.33 weather_temp_c=23.0 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1800

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=22 prior_prob=0.5160 alpha=3.30 beta=3.45 posterior=0.4620 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=79.01 weather_temp_c=21.6 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1850

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=23 prior_prob=0.5320 alpha=3.40 beta=3.40 posterior=0.4740 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=75.46 weather_temp_c=20.9 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1900

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=24 prior_prob=0.5480 alpha=3.50 beta=3.35 posterior=0.4860 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=71.95 weather_temp_c=21.6 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.1950

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=25 prior_prob=0.5640 alpha=3.60 beta=3.30 posterior=0.4980 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=71.70 weather_temp_c=23.0 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2000

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=26 prior_prob=0.5800 alpha=3.70 beta=3.25 posterior=0.5100 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=74.94 weather_temp_c=23.9 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2050

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=27 prior_prob=0.5960 alpha=3.80 beta=3.20 posterior=0.5220 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=78.70 weather_temp_c=23.4 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2100

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=28 prior_prob=0.6120 alpha=3.90 beta=3.15 posterior=0.5340 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=79.52 weather_temp_c=22.0 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2150

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=29 prior_prob=0.6280 alpha=4.00 beta=3.10 posterior=0.5460 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=76.64 weather_temp_c=21.0 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2200

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=30 prior_prob=0.6440 alpha=4.10 beta=3.05 posterior=0.5580 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=72.71 weather_temp_c=21.3 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2250

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=31 prior_prob=0.6600 alpha=4.20 beta=3.00 posterior=0.5700 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=71.35 weather_temp_c=22.6 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2300

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=32 prior_prob=0.6760 alpha=4.30 beta=2.95 posterior=0.5820 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=73.80 weather_temp_c=23.8 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2350

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=33 prior_prob=0.6920 alpha=4.40 beta=2.90 posterior=0.5940 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=77.82 weather_temp_c=23.7 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2400

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=34 prior_prob=0.7080 alpha=4.50 beta=2.85 posterior=0.6060 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=79.70 weather_temp_c=22.4 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2450

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=35 prior_prob=0.7240 alpha=4.60 beta=2.80 posterior=0.6180 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=77.72 weather_temp_c=21.1 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2500

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=36 prior_prob=0.7400 alpha=4.70 beta=2.75 posterior=0.6300 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=73.70 weather_temp_c=21.0 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2550

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=37 prior_prob=0.7560 alpha=4.80 beta=2.70 posterior=0.6420 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=71.33 weather_temp_c=22.2 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2600

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=38 prior_prob=0.7720 alpha=4.90 beta=2.65 posterior=0.6540 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=72.80 weather_temp_c=23.5 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2650

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=39 prior_prob=0.7880 alpha=5.00 beta=2.60 posterior=0.6660 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=76.74 weather_temp_c=23.8 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2700

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=40 prior_prob=0.8040 alpha=5.10 beta=2.55 posterior=0.6780 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=79.55 weather_temp_c=22.8 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2750

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=41 prior_prob=0.8200 alpha=5.20 beta=2.50 posterior=0.6900 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=78.63 weather_temp_c=21.4 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2800

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=42 prior_prob=0.8360 alpha=5.30 beta=2.45 posterior=0.7020 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=74.83 weather_temp_c=20.9 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2850

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=43 prior_prob=0.8520 alpha=5.40 beta=2.40 posterior=0.7140 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=71.65 weather_temp_c=21.8 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2900

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=44 prior_prob=0.8680 alpha=5.50 beta=2.35 posterior=0.7260 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=72.01 weather_temp_c=23.2 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.2950

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=45 prior_prob=0.8840 alpha=5.60 beta=2.30 posterior=0.7380 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=75.57 weather_temp_c=23.9 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.3000

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=46 prior_prob=0.9000 alpha=5.70 beta=2.25 posterior=0.7500 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=79.07 weather_temp_c=23.2 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.3050

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=47 prior_prob=0.9160 alpha=5.80 beta=2.20 posterior=0.7620 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=79.29 weather_temp_c=21.8 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.3100

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=48 prior_prob=0.9320 alpha=5.90 beta=2.15 posterior=0.7740 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=76.02 weather_temp_c=20.9 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.3150

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=49 prior_prob=0.9480 alpha=6.00 beta=2.10 posterior=0.7860 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=72.27 weather_temp_c=21.4 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.3200

[BAYESIAN_UPDATE] round=50 prior_prob=0.9640 alpha=6.10 beta=2.05 posterior=0.7980 [TELEMETRY_LOG] lap_speed_ms=71.49 weather_temp_c=22.9 safety_car_trigger_prob=0.3250

APEXGP MARKETS // EVENT MICROSTRUCTURE STUDY

APEXGP MARKETS

A Quantitative Event Market Research Platform studying dynamic probability pricing, portfolio risk management, and market microstructure.

Vatsal ManiarM.S. Financial EngineeringStevens Institute of Technology

1. What is this?

ApexGP Markets is a specialized research environment that models dynamic binary derivative event contracts. Built using the complete, official 2025 Formula One season calendar, it translates real-time racing incidents and timing telemetry directly into liquid probability books.

2. Why was it built?

The project evaluates how physical real-world telemetry feeds can be used to build real-time pricing pipelines. By mapping driver standings and safety car incidents to continuous Bayesian belief networks, it demonstrates probability repricing, event-driven settlement, and portfolio hedging under extreme drawdowns.

3. Why should one care?

This sandbox serves as a robust proof-of-concept for quantitative finance professionals and market architects. It enforces strict portfolio risk constraints—limiting maximum capital exposure to 30% and single-contract concentrations to 15%—simulating institutional risk desk behaviors in a gameless terminal.

CORE METHODOLOGY PILLARS

Market Design

Binary Event Contracts$0.00 / $1.00
Probability RepricingContinuous Mid
Bid/Ask EvolutionDynamic Spreads
Market MicrostructureOrder Ledger

Quantitative Models

Bayesian UpdatingPosterior Priors
Risk Management30% Max Exp
Portfolio ConstructionCash Sandbox
Event-Driven PricingTelemetry Decay

Historical Replay

Official 2025 F1 SeasonHistorical Data
24 Grand Prix RoundsMelbourne ➔ Yas Marina
Race-by-Race SettlementFIA Results Settle
Championship ProgressionDriver / Construct Points

Closed Sandbox Environment

No real money operations. All trades resolved in virtual Sandbox USD liquidity.